A damped precipitation-driven, bottom-up model for deer mouse population abundance in the northwestern United States.

Small-mammal population densities can be regulated by bottom-up (food availability) and top-down (predation) forces. In 1993, an El Niño Southern Oscillation event was followed by a cluster of human hantavirus with pulmonary syndrome in the southwestern United States. An upward trophic cascade hypothesis was proposed as an explanation for the outbreak: Increased plant productivity as a consequence of El Niño precipitations led to an unusual increase in distribution and abundance of deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus; reservoir host of Sin Nombre virus). Could such drastic events occur in mesic habitats, where plant productivity in response to climate conditions is likely to be much less dramatic? In this work, we investigate to what extent deer mouse populations follow a precipitation-driven, bottom-up model in central and western Montana and discuss important conditions for such a model to be possible. We found positive correlations between deer mouse abundance and on-the-ground measured plant productivity with a several-month lag in three of six study sites. This effect was weaker when deer mouse populations were more abundant, indicating density-dependent effects. Dispersal resulting from territoriality may be important in attenuating local density increments in spite of high food availability. In addition, there is evidence that population abundance in the study area could respond to other abiotic factors. In particular, precipitation in the form of snow may reduce deer mice survival, thus compensating the benefits of improved plant productivity. Deer mouse populations in Montana study sites follow complex dynamics determined by multiple limiting factors, leading to a damped precipitation-driven bottom-up regulation. This prevents dramatic changes in rodent abundances after sudden increments of food availability, such as those observed in other regions.

How much effort is required to accurately describe the complex ecology of a rodent-borne viral disease?

We use data collected on 18,1-ha live trapping grids monitored from 1994 through 2005 and on five of those grids through 2013 in the mesic northwestern US to illustrate the complexity of the deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus)/Sin Nombre virus (SNV) host-pathogen system. Important factors necessary to understand zoonotic disease ecology include those associated with distribution and population dynamics of reservoir species as well as infection dynamics. Results are based on more than 851,000 trap nights, 16,608 individual deer mice and 10,572 collected blood samples. Deer mice were distributed throughout every habitat we sampled and were present during every sampling period in all habitats except high altitude habitats over1900 m. Abundance varied greatly among locations with peak numbers occurring mostly during fall. However, peak rodent abundance occurred during fall, winter and spring during various years on three grids trapped 12 mo/yr. Prevalence of antibodies to SNV averaged 3.9% to 22.1% but no grids had mice with antibodies during every month. The maximum period without antibody-positive mice ranged from one month to 52 months, or even more at high altitude grids where deer mice were not always present. Months without antibody-positive mice were more prevalent during fall than spring. Population fluctuations were not synchronous over broad geographic areas and antibody prevalences were not well spatially consistent, differing greatly over short distances. We observed an apparently negative, but non-statistically significant relationship between average antibody prevalence and average deer mouse population abundance and a statistically significant positive relationship between the average number of antibody positive mice and average population abundance. We present data from which potential researchers can estimate the effort required to adequately describe the ecology of a rodent-borne viral system. We address different factors affecting population dynamics and hantavirus antibody prevalence and discuss the path to understanding a complex rodent-borne disease system as well as the obstacles in that path.

Toward a Mechanistic Understanding of Environmentally Forced Zoonotic Disease Emergence: Sin Nombre Hantavirus.

Understanding the environmental drivers of zoonotic reservoir and human interactions is crucial to understanding disease risk, but these drivers are poorly predicted. We propose a mechanistic understanding of human-reservoir interactions, using hantavirus pulmonary syndrome as a case study. Crucial processes underpinning the disease's incidence remain poorly studied, including the connectivity among natural and peridomestic deer mouse host activity, virus transmission, and human exposure. We found that disease cases were greatest in arid states and declined exponentially with increasing precipitation. Within arid environments, relatively rare climatic conditions (e.g., El Niño) are associated with increased rainfall and reservoir abundance, producing more frequent virus transmission and host dispersal. We suggest that deer mice increase their occupancy of peridomestic structures during spring-summer, amplifying intraspecific transmission and human infection risk. Disease incidence in arid states may increase with predicted climatic changes. Mechanistic approaches incorporating reservoir behavior, reservoir-human interactions, and pathogen spillover could enhance our understanding of global hantavirus ecology, with applications to other directly transmitted zoonoses.

Human exposure to particulate matter potentially contaminated with sin nombre virus.

The most common mechanism for human exposure to hantaviruses throughout North America is inhalation of virally contaminated particulates. However, risk factors associated with exposure to particulates potentially contaminated with hantaviruses are generally not well understood. In North America, Sin Nombre virus (SNV) is the most common hantavirus that infects humans, causing hantavirus pulmonary syndrome, which has a significant mortality rate (approximately 35%). We investigated human exposure to particulate matter and evaluated the effects of season, location (sylvan and peridomestic environment), and activity (walking and sweeping) on generation of particulates at the breathing zone (1.5 m above the ground). We found greater volumes of small inhalable particulates during the spring and summer compared to the fall and winter seasons and greater volumes of small inhalable particulates produced in peridomestic, compared to sylvan, environments. Also, greater volumes of particulates were generated at the breathing zone while walking compared to sweeping. Results suggest that more aerosolized particles were generated during the spring and summer months. Our findings suggest that simply moving around in buildings is a significant source of human exposure to particulates, potentially contaminated with SNV, during spring and summer seasons. These findings could be advanced by investigation of what particle sizes SNV is most likely to attach to, and where in the respiratory tract humans become infected.

Transmission ecology of Sin Nombre hantavirus in naturally infected North American deermouse populations in outdoor enclosures.

Sin Nombre hantavirus (SNV), hosted by the North American deermouse (Peromyscus maniculatus), causes hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in North America. Most transmission studies in the host were conducted under artificial conditions, or extrapolated information from mark-recapture data. Previous studies using experimentally infected deermice were unable to demonstrate SNV transmission. We explored SNV transmission in outdoor enclosures using naturally infected deermice. Deermice acquiring SNV in enclosures had detectable viral RNA in blood throughout the acute phase of infection and acquired significantly more new wounds (indicating aggressive encounters) than uninfected deermice. Naturally-infected wild deermice had a highly variable antibody response to infection, and levels of viral RNA sustained in blood varied as much as 100-fold, even in individuals infected with identical strains of virus. Deermice that infected other susceptible individuals tended to have a higher viral RNA load than those that did not infect other deermice. Our study is a first step in exploring the transmission ecology of SNV infection in deermice and provides new knowledge about the factors contributing to the increase of the prevalence of a zoonotic pathogen in its reservoir host and to changes in the risk of HPS to human populations. The techniques pioneered in this study have implications for a wide range of zoonotic disease studies.

Population density and seasonality effects on Sin Nombre virus transmission in North American deermice (Peromyscus maniculatus) in outdoor enclosures.

Surveys of wildlife host-pathogen systems often document clear seasonal variation in transmission; conclusions concerning the relationship between host population density and transmission vary. In the field, effects of seasonality and population density on natural disease cycles are challenging to measure independently, but laboratory experiments may poorly reflect what happens in nature. Outdoor manipulative experiments are an alternative that controls for some variables in a relatively natural environment. Using outdoor enclosures, we tested effects of North American deermouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) population density and season on transmission dynamics of Sin Nombre hantavirus. In early summer, mid-summer, late summer, and fall 2007-2008, predetermined numbers of infected and uninfected adult wild deermice were released into enclosures and trapped weekly or bi-weekly. We documented 18 transmission events and observed significant seasonal effects on transmission, wounding frequency, and host breeding condition. Apparent differences in transmission incidence or wounding frequency between high- and low-density treatments were not statistically significant. However, high host density was associated with a lower proportion of males with scrotal testes. Seasonality may have a stronger influence on disease transmission dynamics than host population density, and density effects cannot be considered independent of seasonality.

[Oligoryzomys longicaudatus characteristics' associated with the presence of Andes virus (Hantavirus)]. / Características de Oligoryzomys longicaudatus asociadas a la presencia del virus Andes (Hantavirus).

Oligoryzomys longicaudatus is the main reservoir of Andes virus (AND), which causes hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in Patagonia. The factors associated with the presence of antibodies against AND in this species are unknown. This study used a logistic regression model to analyze which characteristics of O. longicaudatus, captured in northern Argentinean Patagonia, led to an increased probability of an animal having antibodies against AND and to relate these characteristics to possible mechanisms of transmission of the virus within the population. Sex, age, body mass, and wounds were important predictors regarding the presence of antibodies against AND within O. longicaudatus populations. The probability of a wounded male O. longicaudatus adult having AND antibodies increased in parallel with the body mass. The probability of having antibodies was more than 80% in individuals with body masses above 44 gram. However, the possible transmission mechanism of AND within O. longicaudatus population is still uncertain and further studies involving a larger number of individuals and prolonged monitoring including the process of seroconversion are needed.

Prediction of Peromyscus maniculatus (deer mouse) population dynamics in Montana, USA, using satellite-driven vegetation productivity and weather data.

Deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) are the main reservoir host for Sin Nombre virus, the primary etiologic agent of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in North America. Sequential changes in weather and plant productivity (trophic cascades) have been noted as likely catalysts of deer mouse population irruptions, and monitoring and modeling of these phenomena may allow for development of early-warning systems for disease risk. Relationships among weather variables, satellite-derived vegetation productivity, and deer mouse populations were examined for a grassland site east of the Continental Divide and a sage-steppe site west of the Continental Divide in Montana, USA. We acquired monthly deer mouse population data for mid-1994 through 2007 from long-term study sites maintained for monitoring changes in hantavirus reservoir populations, and we compared these with monthly bioclimatology data from the same period and gross primary productivity data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer sensor for 2000-06. We used the Random Forests statistical learning technique to fit a series of predictive models based on temperature, precipitation, and vegetation productivity variables. Although we attempted several iterations of models, including incorporating lag effects and classifying rodent density by seasonal thresholds, our results showed no ability to predict rodent populations using vegetation productivity or weather data. We concluded that trophic cascade connections to rodent population levels may be weaker than originally supposed, may be specific to only certain climatic regions, or may not be detectable using remotely sensed vegetation productivity measures, although weather patterns and vegetation dynamics were positively correlated.

Características de Oligoryzomys longicaudatus asociadas a la presencia del virus Andes (Hantavirus) / Oligoryzomys longicaudatus characteristics' associated with the presence of Andes virus (Hantavirus)

Oligoryzomys longicaudatus is the main reservoir of Andes virus (AND), which causes hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in Patagonia. The factors associated with the presence of antibodies against AND in this species are unknown. This study used a logistic regression model to analyze which characteristics of O. longicaudatus, captured in northern Argentinean Patagonia, led to an increased probability of an animal having antibodies against AND and to relate these characteristics to possible mechanisms of transmission of the virus within the population. Sex, age, body mass, and wounds were important predictors regarding the presence of antibodies against AND within O. longicaudatus populations. The probability of a wounded male O. longicaudatus adult having AND antibodies increased in parallel with the body mass. The probability of having antibodies was more than 80% in individuals with body masses above 44 gram. However, the possible transmission mechanism of AND within O. longicaudatus population is still uncertain and further studies involving a larger number of individuals and prolonged monitoring including the process of seroconversion are needed.

Oligoryzomys longicaudatus es el principal reservorio del virus Andes Sur (AND) causante del síndrome pulmonar por hantavirus en la Patagonia. Aún se desconoce qué características individuales están asociadas a una mayor presencia de anticuerpos contra AND en esta especie. En este estudio, mediante un modelo de regresión logística evaluamos qué características de O. longicaudatus, capturados en la Patagonia norte de Argentina, incrementan la probabilidad de un individuo de presentar anticuerpos contra AND para relacionarlos con posibles mecanismos de transmisión del virus dentro de la población. El sexo, la edad, la masa corporal y las heridas resultaron factores importantes para la circulación y persistencia del virus dentro de la población de O. longicaudatus. La probabilidad de que un O. longicaudatus, macho, adulto con heridas presente anticuerpos contra AND aumentó con el incremento de la masa corporal, siendo esta probabilidad mayor al 80% en individuos con masas corporales mayores a 44 g. Sin embargo, el posible mecanismo de transmisión de AND dentro de la población de O. longicaudatus queda aún incierto, por lo que son necesarios estudios futuros que involucren un mayor número de individuos y un tiempo prolongado de seguimiento en su proceso de seroconversión.

Sin Nombre hantavirus decreases survival of male deer mice.

How pathogens affect their hosts is a key question in infectious disease ecology, and it can have important influences on the spread and persistence of the pathogen. Sin Nombre virus (SNV) is the etiological agent of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in humans. A better understanding of SNV in its reservoir host, the deer mouse, could lead to improved predictions of the circulation and persistence of the virus in the mouse reservoir, and could help identify the factors that lead to increased human risk of HPS. Using mark-recapture statistical modeling on longitudinal data collected over 15 years, we found a 13.4% decrease in the survival of male deer mice with antibodies to SNV compared to uninfected mice (both male and female). There was also an additive effect of breeding condition, with a 21.3% decrease in survival for infected mice in breeding condition compared to uninfected, non-breeding mice. The data identified that transmission was consistent with density-dependent transmission, implying that there may be a critical host density below which SNV cannot persist. The notion of a critical host density coupled with the previously overlooked disease-induced mortality reported here contribute to a better understanding of why SNV often goes extinct locally and only seems to persist at the metapopulation scale, and why human spillover is episodic and hard to predict.

Rodent community structure and Andes virus infection in sylvan and peridomestic habitats in northwestern Patagonia, Argentina.

Modifications of natural habitat in peridomestic rural areas could affect original rodent community composition, diversity, and evenness. In zoonoses such as hantavirus pulmonary syndrome, the presence of a diverse community can dilute the impact of the principal reservoir, reducing risk to humans. The goal of this study was to examine rodent community composition, abundance of Andes virus (ANDV) host (Oligoryzomys longicaudatus), ANDV prevalence, and temporal variability associated with rural peridomestic settings in Patagonia, Argentina. We trapped rodents in peridomestic settings and nearby sylvan areas for 2 years. The numerically dominant species differed between peridomestic and sylvan settings. O. longicaudatus was the most abundant species in peridomestic settings (>50% of individuals). Diversity and evenness in peridomestic settings fluctuated temporally, with an abrupt decline in evenness coinciding with peaks in ANDV prevalence. The probability of finding an ANDV-positive mouse in peridomestic settings was 2.44 times greater than in sylvan habitats. Changes in rodent communities in peridomestic settings may increase the probability for human exposure to ANDV because those settings promote the presence of O. longicaudatus with high ANDV antibody prevalence. High O. longicaudatus relative abundance in an unstable community associated with peridomestic settings may favor intraspecific contact, leading to a higher probability of virus transmission.

Grazing Effects on Deer Mice with Implications to Human Exposure to Sin Nombre Virus.

We examined the effects of grazing on deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) movements into buildings using passive integrated transponder (PIT) technology and small simulated buildings located on 0.6-ha treatment (grazing) and control (no grazing) plots. Twelve experimental 9-day trials were conducted over the course of the study. During these trials, mouse movements into buildings were monitored during three time periods (each 3 days in length). In the treatment plots these time periods corresponded to pre-grazing, grazing, and post grazing by horses. The number of individual deer mice entering buildings over time decreased in both the grazed and control plots during the 9 days of each experiment. The number of entrances per/individual among the pre-grazing, grazing and post grazing periods was different between control and treated plots for both males and females. The distribution of entrances/individual among the three periods differed between males and females in both grazed and control plots. The habitat modification caused by grazing appeared to reduce deer mouse activity (entrances/individual) in buildings but does not affect the number of mice entering buildings. Reducing vegetative cover by grazing or mowing may not affect the number of mice investigating small structures but grazing creates different activity patterns in the structures for neighboring deer mice.

Relationship of human behavior within outbuildings to potential exposure to Sin Nombre virus in western Montana.

Sin Nombre virus (SNV) causes hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS) in humans. Transmission of SNV among the deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) host predominates during spring and summer, and is greater in peridomestic than sylvan settings where, protected from UV light, SNV may survive longer. Incidence of HCPS reflects these times and settings and is associated with inhalation of mouse excreta. Little is known, however, about how human use of outbuildings contributes to potential exposure to SNV. Here, the frequency and seasonality of outbuilding use by humans was evaluated, via a survey of rural residents in western Montana, to quantify human behaviors and potential risk of exposure to SNV. Retrieving or return of tools and scooping feed/grain were the most frequently undertaken activities. Seasonal activities coinciding with seasons of highest HCPS incidence and times of potentially high viral shedding by deer mice, included retrieving or returning tools, calving or lambing, and, to a lesser extent, feeding livestock and sweeping or cleaning. Human behavior is a component of SNV transmission risk and this preliminary study provides a basis from which to further evaluate this route of exposure.

The effect of seasonality, density and climate on the population dynamics of Montana deer mice, important reservoir hosts for Sin Nombre hantavirus.

1. Since Sin Nombre virus was discovered in the U.S. in 1993, longitudinal studies of the rodent reservoir host, the deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) have demonstrated a qualitative correlation among mouse population dynamics and risk of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in humans, indicating the importance of understanding deer mouse population dynamics for evaluating risk of HPS. 2. Using capture-mark-recapture statistical methods on a 15-year data set from Montana, we estimated deer mouse survival, maturation and recruitment rates and tested the relative importance of seasonality, population density and local climate in explaining temporal variation in deer mouse demography. 3. From these estimates, we designed a population model to simulate deer mouse population dynamics given climatic variables and compared the model to observed patterns. 4. Month, precipitation 5 months previously, temperature 5 months previously and to a lesser extent precipitation and temperature in the current month, were important in determining deer mouse survival. Month, the sum of precipitation over the last 4 months, and the sum of the temperature over the last 4 months were important in determining recruitment rates. Survival was more important in determining the growth rate of the population than recruitment. 5. While climatic drivers appear to have a complex influence on dynamics, our forecasts were good. Our quantitative model may allow public health officials to better predict increased human risk from basic climatic data.

Seasonal dispersal patterns of sylvan deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) within Montana rangelands.

We examined seasonal dispersal patterns and timing of new infections of Sin Nombre virus (SNV), as determined by recent acquisition of antibodies (seroconversion), in deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) at two Montana rangeland study sites over three years, 2004-2007. One study site was located in grassland habitat, and the other was located in shrub-steppe. In Montana, both of these habitats are commonly associated with peridomestic environments (in and around buildings). Peridomestic environments are where most reported human cases of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) likely originate. Furthermore, deer mice dispersing from sylvan habitats colonize peridomestic environments. Thus, a thorough understanding of deer mouse dispersal is needed to help predict when humans are most at risk for exposure to SNV. We trapped mice at each study site twice a month, accumulating 85,200 trap nights of effort and capturing 6,185 individual deer mice a total of 22,654 times. We documented 980 dispersing individuals over 3 yr. We found positive correlations between the number of dispersing mice and number captured at each site, but there were no statistically significant seasonal differences in the number of dispersing mice. However, we did find a spring/summer bias in mice that seroconverted and dispersed, suggesting that recently infected deer mice are most likely to enter settings where humans may be exposed to SNV during spring and summer.

Seroprevalence against Sin Nombre virus in resident and dispersing deer mice.

Through dispersal, deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) enter peridomestic settings (e.g., outbuildings, barns, cabins) and expose humans and other deer mouse populations to Sin Nombre virus (SNV). In June 2004, research on deer mouse dispersal was initiated at 2 locations in Montana. During the course of the study, over 6000 deer mouse movements were recorded, and more than 1000 of these movements were classified as dispersal movements. More than 1700 individual deer mice were captured and tested for SNV, revealing an average SNV antibody prevalence of approximately 11%. Most of the dispersing and antibody-positive individuals were adult males. Among the few subadult dispersing mice discovered during the study, none were seropositive for SNV. Our results suggest that dispersal rates are higher in high abundance populations of deer mice and that during peak times of dispersal, human exposure to SNV, which commonly occurs in peridomestic settings, could increase.

Delayed density-dependent prevalence of Sin Nombre virus antibody in Montana deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) and implications for human disease risk.

American hantaviruses cause a severe respiratory disease known as hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS). In the United States, Sin Nombre virus (SNV), carried by the deer mouse ( Peromyscus maniculatus), is the etiologic agent in the majority of HPS cases. The relationship between deer mouse population density and SNV infection prevalence in deer mice is poorly understood. Our purpose was to clarify this relationship by demonstrating the existence of delayed-density-dependent prevalence of SNV infection in populations of wild deer mice. We also explored the relationship between SNV infection in deer mouse populations and the incidence of human HPS. The study population was 3,616 deer mice captured on 10 mark-recapture grids in Montana during May and September, 1994-2004. Using multivariate logistic regression analysis, we found a strong association between deer mouse population density in fall (September) and SNV antibody prevalence in deer mice the following spring (May). Other characteristics associated with SNV infection in deer mice in spring were: (1) presence of at least one infected deer mouse in the population the previous fall, (2) male gender, (3) adult age class, (4) presence of scars, (5) grassland and logged habitats, and (6) elevations below 1,300 m. There was a strong association between concurrently measured SNV antibody prevalence in deer mice and probable exposure of human HPS cases during the same time period. Human cases were more likely to occur during seasons when SNV antibody prevalence was at least 10% in deer mouse populations. These findings suggest that fall rodent population parameters could be used to help guide prevention efforts the following spring.

Sin Nombre virus infection of deer mice in Montana: characteristics of newly infected mice, incidence, and temporal pattern of infection.

Sin Nombre virus (SNV), hosted by the deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus), is the principal cause of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in North America. To improve our understanding of factors that contribute to the occurrence of HPS, we conducted an extensive field study of the characteristics of newly infected (as determined by recent acquisition of antibody) deer mice and the temporal pattern of antibody acquisition (seroconversion) from 1994 through 2004 in Montana, USA. We sampled 6,584 individual deer mice, of which 2,747 were captured over multiple trapping periods. Among these 2,747 deer mice, we detected 171 instances of seroconversion. There was no relationship between seroconversion and the acquisition of scars. However, recently infected Montana deer mice were more likely to be older, more likely to be males, and more likely to be in breeding condition. In addition, recently infected male deer mice gained less weight over the 1-mo period following seroconversion than did those that did not acquire antibody, suggesting that SNV infection may have negatively impacted the health of infected rodents. Incidence was highly variable among years, and timing of infections was primarily associated with the breeding season (generally early spring through late fall).

Demographic factors associated with prevalence of antibody to Sin Nombre virus in deer mice in the western United States.

We used long-term data collected for up to 10 yr (1994-2004) at 23 trapping arrays (i.e., webs and grids) in Arizona, Colorado, Montana, and New Mexico to examine demographic factors known or suspected to be associated with risk of infection with Sin Nombre virus (SNV) in its natural host, the deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus). Gender, age (mass), wounds or scars, season, and local relative population densities were statistically associated with the period prevalence of antibody (used as a marker of infection) to SNV in host populations. Nevertheless, antibody prevalence and some of the risk factors associated with antibody prevalence, such as relative population density, gender bias, and prevalence of wounding, varied significantly among sites and even between nearby trapping arrays at a single site. This suggests that local microsite-specific differences play an important role in determining relative risk of infection by SNV in rodents and, consequently, in humans. Deer mouse relative population density varied among sites and was positively and statistically associated with infection prevalence, an association that researchers conducting shorter-term studies failed to demonstrate. Both wounding and antibody prevalence increased with mass class in both males and females; this increase was much more pronounced in males than in females and wounding was more frequent in adult males than in adult females. Prevalence of wounding was greatest among seropositive deer mice, regardless of mass class, but many deer mice without detectable wounds or scars eventually became infected. Many of these patterns, which will be useful in the development of predictive models of disease risk to humans, were only detected through the application of data collected over a long (10-yr) period and with abundant replication.